algy.html
ALGY SAYS...


Algy is short for 'algorithm'...and is an experimental model developed by myself for
determining possible areas of storm genesis. It is based on nine atmospheric variables at seven different levels
in the atmosphere and is, by its experimental nature,
not to be used for anything other than as an alternative prognosis. I must stress that this is a 'work in
progress' and is only issued on certain days when in my opinion storms are possible.
Use at your own risk... 


 
• Algy calculates the chances of storms within a 50km radius in a +/- 3 hour timespan either side of the forecast time •
LAST UPDATE: Friday, 3 April 2009, 10.10 a.m.
CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
TEST:  Confidence less than 5% (no hits count)
LOW:  Less than 10%
LOW/MODERATE: 10% to 20%
MODERATE: 20% to 30%
MODERATE/HIGH: 30% to 50%
HIGH: Greater than 50%
TODAY'S AREA OF INTEREST 1: (06Z) Friday 3 April 2009
BULLSEYE: Cheshunt, VIC   CONFIDENCE: LOW/MODERATE

* Map of Target Area 1 ---------------------------- Sounding for Target Area 1 *

* Streamline Forecast ------------------------------------ Nearest Radar *


* NEW!! Beta Test For Target Area 1: Cheshunt South, VIC *


TARGET AREA INFORMATION
BETA TEST ALGY TARGET: (06Z) Monday 9 February 2009
BULLSEYE: none    CONFIDENCE:


* Streamline Forecast ------------------------------------ Nearest Radar *



FINAL 2008/2009 SEASON ALGY STATS...

TRIALS: 105   SEVERES:  8   STORMS:  62   MISSES:  35
STRIKE RATE:  66.7%


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Sounding for WYCHEPROOF 06Z today...


Page designed by Kevin Phyland, Wycheproof, Vic. Australia. 2001-2009.

Page updated 4 April 2009


Information and soundings courtesy of READY, FNMOC, WeatherZone, OzForecast.com, Mike Manning, Ben Quinn and Ken Kato.


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